The steady recovery in economic indicators in Q3 2020 is beginning to decelerate. The Conference Board’s base case forecast scenario for the US economy yields a 34.6 percent (annualized) pop in GDP growth in Q3 but growth of just 1.5 percent in Q4. Improvements in the labor market, consumer confidence, and personal savings rates are not driving a sufficiently rapid rebound in consumption to quickly end the recession. However, as the path to recovery remains highly uncertain, we also offer upside and downside scenarios for future growth.