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March 2021 | Economy Watch Reports
Following a surge in new US COVID-19 cases at the end of 2020, the severity of the pandemic is rapidly fading. Coupled with the rollout of three vaccines in the US, a $900 billion economic support package in December and an additional $1.9 trillion package in March, there is reason to be optimistic about an improving recovery outlook. The Conference Board’s baseline US forecast yields a 5.5 percent annual GDP growth rate in 2021 following an estimated 3.5 percent contraction in 2020. Quarterly growth should peak in 2Q21 at 8.5 percent (annualized) as the economy returns to prepandemic levels. In 2022, we forecast an above-average annual growth rate of 3.5 percent.
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