Economy Watch: US View (September 2023)

While the prospects for a ‘soft landing’ have risen, The Conference Board believes it is more probable that the US economy will slip into a short and shallow recession in early 2024. While consumer spending has held up in recent months, income gains have not kept pace. Rising debt levels and declining savings have underpinned consumption. This is not sustainable in our view. US labor markets remain tight given a strong September jobs report and large upward revisions for July and August. As the economy cools in early 2024 so too will the labor market. On inflation, progress is being made, but the outbreak of war in the Middle East amplifies energy price risks. We expect one final 25 bps hike by yearend, but no cuts until mid-2024.