US View: An economic lull over the winter will give way to a summer bounce | The Conference Board
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US View: An economic lull over the winter will give way to a summer bounce


November 2020 | Economy Watch Reports

The steady recovery in many economic indicators in Q3 2020 has begun to wane as the US approaches winter. A resurgence in COVID-19 cases and softer demand will likely limit growth in the short-term. However, with two potential vaccines on the horizon consumers are likely to begin spending again in Q2 2020. Our base case forecast yields an annual GDP contraction of 3.6 percent in 2020, but an expansion of 3.4 percent in 2021However, we can envision two additional scenarios ahead: (1) an upside scenario in which growth momentum picks up again sooner and (2) a downside “double dip” scenario that extends economic weakness deeper into 2021.    


AUTHOR

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Erik Lundh

Senior Economist
The Conference Board


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