Uncertain Future for Mail-In Ballots

Action: The President wrote in a social media post on August 18 that he plans to sign an Executive Order to eliminate voting by mail and “seriously controversial” voting machines ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Later, at the White House, the President said that the Republican Party must get behind this initiative to retain power. Trump has for years cast doubt on the security of ballots cast by mail and has been a critic of electronic voting machines, pushing instead for the use of paper ballots.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• Measures taken to conduct an election safely during the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated trends towards voting by mail. The percentage of voters who used this method of voting in 2020 rose to 43.1%, up from 24.5% in 2016. During the 2022 midterms, the number of voters voting by mail remained significantly higher than prepandemic levels at 31.9%, compared to 25.6% in 2018. In 2024, that figure dropped only slightly with 30.3% of voters voting by mail. (Figures include states that conduct most or all voting by mail.)
• Currently, 28 states offer “no-excuse” absentee voting, meaning that any voter can request and cast a vote by mail without having to give a defined reason. Eight states and the District of Columbia allow all elections to be conducted entirely by mail; while all registered voters are mailed a ballot, opportunities for in-person voting remain.
• Democrats have been significantly more likely to vote by mail than Republicans since the 2020 election and express far more favorable views of the process. Following the 2020 election, 60% of voters who voted by mail stated that it was “very likely” they would vote by mail again, 65% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans.
• Election administration in the US is highly decentralized with each state having its own laws governing voting procedures. However, Federal law provides for some standards in which states must adhere to. The Constitution grants Congress—not the President—the authority to regulate federal elections.
• The forthcoming Executive Order would likely face litigation, and once sorted out, states would need time to prepare. Without the option of voting by mail, more people would vote in person, which would require logistical planning in terms of polling location capacity, or be discouraged from voting.