The Road to a Deal: Four Scenarios
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Post-Elections 2024: What's Ahead

2025 US Debt Ceiling Showdown

Congress is expected to forge a compromise on the US debt ceiling to avoid a sovereign debt default, but the decision is unlikely to be made without a fight.

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The Road to a Deal: Four Scenarios

January 09, 2025

This report examines three viable paths to a deal using a legislative tactic called reconciliation and a fourth unlikely path, all of which contain many twists, turns, and pitfalls that may delay resolution.

Key Insights

  • The red sweep (i.e., GOP control over both houses of Congress and the White House) does not guarantee smooth sailing for key pieces of legislation in 2025, including for the debt limit.
  • If Congress and the president do not agree on a path for the debt ceiling before the US Treasury runs out of cash to operate the federal government, then the US will experience a sovereign debt default.
  • As default is not an option, given the devasting economic and financial market effects, Republicans are likely to use reconciliation to address multiple unavoidable fiscal priorities this year.
  • A debt ceiling decision could be paired with a deal to fund the federal government before May to avoid automatic spending cuts or an agreement to prevent trillions of dollars in tax hikes at the start of 2026 or one massive bill. All options likely require reconciliation.
  • If reconciliation is not used to address the debt ceiling, then potentially a more difficult path of passing a “clean” bill (i.e., no strings attached) will be explored.

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Authors

Dana M. Peterson

Dana M. Peterson

Chief Economist and Leader, Economy, Strategy & Finance Center

Read BioDana M. Peterson

David K. Young

David K. Young

President

Read BioDavid K. Young

John Gardner

John Gardner

Vice President, Public Policy

Read BioJohn Gardner

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