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Economics Program Working Paper Series

  1. Global Growth Projections for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017

    16 November, 2016 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    This paper presents the methodology for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017, including projections for 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33 mature and 32 emerging market economies for 2017, 2017–2022, and 2022–2026.

  2. ICT Asset Prices: Marshaling Evidence into New Measures

    11 July, 2016 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    This paper provides the sources and methods used to construct national accounts-style price deflators for the major components of ICT investment: communications equipment, computer equipment, and software.

  3. ICT Prices and ICT Services: What do they tell us about productivity and technology?

    11 July, 2016 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    This paper reassesses the link between ICT prices, technology, and productivity. The currently available information on ICT asset prices and ICT services is put under a microscope, and official prices are found to substantially understate actual ICT price declines.

  4. International Labor Cost Projections

    30 January, 2016 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    Differences in labor cost growth signal changes to an economy’s international competitiveness as well as its workers’ comparative standard of living, yet there is a scarcity of adequate models that project labor costs across countries. In this paper we compare US projections to other advanced economies in Europe and Asia-Pacific.

  5. Wage-Productivity Growth Gap: An Analysis of Industry Data

    30 January, 2016 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    The widening gap between labor productivity growth and real wage growth in the United States has attracted much attention in recent years. This paper provides an industrial and cross-country comparative perspective, which has been lacking so far in the literature.

  6. International Comparisons of Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs: Sources, Trends, and New Directions

    30 January, 2016 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    Unit labor cost (ULC), defined as labor compensation per unit of output, is a widely used measure of international cost competitiveness. ULC trends, however, differ widely across countries and, traditionally, have been explained in terms of underlying movements in productivity, compensation, and exchange rates. This paper makes a first attempt to adjust unit labor cost measures for product quality differences in export baskets between countries, using unit values of exported products.

  7. Global Growth Projections for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2016

    09 November, 2015 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    This paper presents the methodology for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2016, including projections for 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33 mature and 32 emerging market economies for 2016, 2016-2020, and 2021-2025.

  8. Public Intangibles: The Public Sector and Economic Growth in the SNA

    15 July, 2015 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    A framework for the analysis of public investments, tangible and intangible, for the economic analysis of impacts of public policies influencing economic growth.

  9. Identification and Monitoring of Business Cycles in the Economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council Region

    15 June, 2015 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    Using The Conference Board indicator approach, this paper develops a scoreboard of indicators that should allow economists and analysts to improve their insights on the timing and speed of changes in the economic and business cycle conditions in the Gulf Cooperation Council region.

  10. Communication Networks, ICT and Productivity Growth in Europe

    01 December, 2014 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    What are the channels through which communication networks affect productivity growth?

  11. Global Growth Projections for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2015

    12 November, 2014 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    This paper presents the methodology for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2015, including projections for 11 major regions.

  12. Knowledge Spillovers, ICT and Productivity Growth

    13 June, 2014 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Carol Corrado, Jonathan Haskel, and Cecilia Jona-Lasinio

    May 2014 - EPWP #14 – 02

    What are the channels through which intangible assets affect productivity?

  13. China's Growth and Productivity Performance Debate Revisited - Accounting for China’s Sources of Growth with a New Data Set

    05 February, 2014 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Harry X. Wu January 2014 - EPWP #14 – 01

    There are several problems with official Chinese economic data that are often overlooked, including structural breaks in employment statistics and implausibly high labor productivity figures related to “nonmaterial” services.

  14. Brands as Productive Assets: Concepts, Measurement, and Global Trends

    15 November, 2013 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Carol A. Corrado and Janet X. Hao

    This paper finds that conventional measures misrepresent brand spending trends in the United States because those metrics do not take into account increased spending on social media and strategic marketing.

  15. Tracking Business Cycles in Brazil with Composite Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

    20 August, 2013 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Aloisio Campelo Jr., Jing Sima-Friedman, Sarah Lima, Ataman Ozyildirim, Paulo Picchetti

    August 2013 - EPWP #13 – 06

  16. Modeling Trends, Cyclical Movements and Turning Points of the Chinese Economy

    20 June, 2013 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Ataman Ozyildirim and Harry Wu

    June 2013 - EPWP #13 – 02

  17. Forecasting Chinese Households’ Demand from Home Production

    12 June, 2013 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Yabin Wang
    June 2013 - EPWP #13 – 01

  18. Recent Changes in Europe’s Competitive Landscape and Medium-Term Perspectives: How the Sources of Demand and Supply Are Shaping Up

    06 May, 2013 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Bart van Ark, Vivian Chen, Bert Colijn, Kirsten Jaeger, Wim Overmeer, and Marcel Timmer
    March 2013 - EPWP #13 – 05

  19. Intangible Capital and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results

    13 December, 2012 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Carol Corrado, Jonathan Haskel, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Massimiliano Iommi
    December 2012 - EPWP #12 – 03

  20. Innovation Accounting

    13 December, 2012 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Carol Corrado and Charles Hulten
    December 2012 - EPWP #12 – 04

  21. Projecting Global Growth

    13 November, 2012 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Vivian Chen, Ben Cheng, Gad Levanon, Ataman Ozyildirim and Bart van Ark
    November 2012 - EPWP #12 – 02

  22. Total Factor Productivity among Cities in China: Estimation and Explanation

    01 June, 2012 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Yan Xu and Shu Yu
    June 2012 - EPWP #12 – 01

  23. Constructing a Data Set on Labour Composition Change

    20 December, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Boele Bonthuis
    December 2011 - EPWP #11 – 04

  24. Using the Leading Credit IndexTM to Predict Turning Points in the U.S. Business Cycle

    20 December, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Gad Levanon, Jean-Claude Manini, Ataman Ozyildirim, Brian Schaitkin, and Jennelyn Tanchua
    December 2011 - EPWP #11 – 05

  25. Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the United States

    20 December, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Gad Levanon, Ataman Ozyildirim, Brian Schaitkin, and Justyna Zabinska
    December 2011 - EPWP #11 – 06

  26. Projecting Economic Growth with Growth Accounting Techniques: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2012 Sources and Methods

    15 November, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Vivian Chen, Ben Cheng, Gad Levanon, and Bart van Ark
    November 2011 - EPWP #11 – 07

  27. Constructing a Price Deflator for R&D: Calculating the Price of Knowledge Investments as a Residual

    28 October, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Carol Corrado, Peter Goodridge, and Jonathan Haskel
    October 2011 - EPWP #11 – 03

  28. U.S. Workers Are Delaying Retirement: Who and Why, and Implications for Businesses

    09 September, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Gad Levanon and Ben Cheng, September 2011. - EPWP #11 – 02

  29. Impact of ICT on Production of Goods and Services: Policy and Development of ICT—The Impact of Public and Regulatory Policy on ICT Sector Performance

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Raul L. Katz, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #1

  30. Impact of ICT on Production of Goods and Services: Mobile Communication and Social Capital in Korea and the U.S.— How Usage Patterns Predict Social, C

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Scott W. Campbell, Nojin Kwak and Richard Ling, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #2

  31. Impact of ICT on Production of Goods and Services: Who Captures the Benefits of ICT? The Case of Digital Books

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Janet Hao and Randall Weiss, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #3

  32. Towards Comprehensive Measurement of ICT’s Impact: Measuring the Impact of ICT on Health Care

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robbin te Velde, Jesse Bos, and Reg Brennenraedts, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #4

  33. Impact of ICT on Production of Goods and Services: The Impact of ICT on the Geographic Distribution of Employment

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Vlad Manole and Randall Weiss, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #5

  34. Impact of ICT on Production of Goods and Services: The Global Broadband Bonus: Broadband Internet’s Impact on Seven Countries

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Shane Greenstein and Ryan McDevitt, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #6

  35. Impact of ICT on Production of Goods and Services: The Long Tail of Digital Exclusion — A Comparison Between the UK and Chile

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Ellen J. Helsper and Sergio Godoy-Etcheverry, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #7

  36. Impact of ICT on Production of Goods and Services: Measuring the Impact of ICT on Public Sector Performance

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robbin te Velde, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #8

  37. Impact of ICT on Production of Goods and Services: Measuring the Impact of ICT on Education

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Cor-Jan Jager, Jesse Bos, and Robbin te Velde, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #9

  38. Impact of ICT on Production of Goods and Services: Towards Comprehensive Measurement of ICT’s Impact: Paying Attention to Society and Culture

    12 July, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Katherine Schinasi and Ivy Schultz, July 2011. - ICTLinkedWorld #10

  39. Communication Capital, Metcalfe’s Law, and U.S. Productivity Growth

    31 March, 2011 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Carol Corrado, March 2011. - EPWP #11 – 01

  40. India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective

    30 September, 2010 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Utsav Kumar
    September 2010 - EPWP #10 – 03

  41. On the Selection of Leading Economic Indicators for China

    15 July, 2010 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Bill Adams, Pieter Bottelier, Ataman Ozyildirim, Jing Sima-Friedman, May 2010. - EPWP #10 – 02

  42. Case for Businesses to Invest in Post-Secondary Credentials

    06 February, 2010 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Chris Woock, February 2010 . - EPWP #10 – 01

  43. Rising Wages: Has China Lost Its Global Labor Advantage?

    01 March, 2009 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Dennis Tao Yang, Vivian Chen, Ryan Monarch, March 2009. - EPWP #09 – 03

  44. Cost Competitiveness of the Manufacturing Sector in China and India: An Industry and Regional Perspective

    05 January, 2009 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Bart van Ark, Abdul Azeez Erumban, Vivian Chen, Utsav Kumar, January 2009. – EPWP #09 – 02

  45. Some Recent Changes in Economic Growth, Cycles and Volatility

    04 January, 2009 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Ataman Ozyildirim and Victor Zarnowitz, January 2009. - EPWP #09 – 01

  46. Accounting for the Knowledge Economy

    15 December, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Charles Hulten, December 2008. - EPWP #08 - 13

  47. Entrepreneurs, Inventors and the Growth of the Economy

    13 December, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by William J. Baumol, December 2008. - EPWP #08 - 12

  48. Exploring Innovation with Firm Level Data

    12 December, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Samuel Kortum, December 2008. - EPWP #08 - 11

  49. Historical Foundations of American Technology

    11 December, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Gavin Wright, December 2008. - EPWP #08 - 10

  50. Immigration and Labor Force Trends

    10 December, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by B. Lindsay Lowell, December 2008. - EPWP #08 - 09

  51. Innovation as Viewed from Within the Corporation

    09 December, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Jim Lichtenberg and Christopher Woock, December 2008. - EPWP #08 - 08

  52. Technological Change and Earnings Polarization: Implications for Skill Demand and Economic Growth

    08 December, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by David Autor, December 2008. - EPWP #08 – 07

  53. dynamics of spatial agglomeration in China: an empirical assessment

    05 December, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Ana Isabel Moreno-Monroy, December 2008. - EPWP #08 – 06

  54. Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators

    01 November, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Ataman Ozyildirim, Brian Schaitkin, Victor Zarnowitz, November 2008. - EPWP #08 – 04

  55. Measuring Changes in Competitiveness in Chinese Manufacturing Industries Across Regions in 1995 – 2004: An Unit Labor Cost Approach

    07 July, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Vivian W. Chen, Harry X. Wu, Bart van Ark, June 2008. - EPWP #08 – 03

  56. Intangible Capital and the Market to Book Value Puzzle

    20 June, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Charles Hulten and Janet Hao, June 2008. - EPWP #08 – 02

  57. On the Measurement and Analysis of Aggregate Economic Activity for China: The Coincident Economic Indicators Approach

    30 April, 2008 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Feng Guo, Ataman Ozyildirim, Victor Zarnowitz, April 2008. - EPWP #08 – 01

  58. Contribution of Restructuring and Reallocation to China's Productivity and Growth

    31 December, 2007 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Haiyan Deng, John Haltiwanger, Robert McGuckin, Jianyi Xu, Yaodong Liu, and Yuqi Liu, December 2007. - EPWP #07 – 04

  59. Persistent Business Cycles and High Economic Growth: How to Explain Their Long Concurrence in Modern Capitalism?

    27 December, 2007 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Victor Zarnowitz, December 2007. - EPWP #07 – 03

  60. Innovation, Intangibles and Economic Growth: Towards A Comprehensive Accounting of the Knowledge Economy

    05 December, 2007 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Bart van Ark and Charles R. Hulten, December 2007. - EPWP #07 – 02

  61. Manufacturing In China Today: Employment And Labor Compensation

    05 November, 2007 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Judith Banister, November 2007. - EPWP #07 – 01

  62. Europe's Productivity Gap: Catching Up or Getting Stuck?

    05 June, 2006 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Bart Van Ark, June 2006. - EPWP #06 - 02

  63. Appendices to "Internationally Comparable Science, Technology and Competitiveness Indicators"

    01 June, 2006 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin, Bart van Ark, Sean M. Dougherty and Robert Inklaar, May 2006. - EPWP #06 – 01

  64. International Comparisons of R&D Expenditure: Does an R&D PPP make a difference?

    13 November, 2004 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Sean M. Dougherty, Robert Inklaar, Robert H. McGuckin, and Bart Van Ark, October 2004. - EPWP #04 - 03

  65. What Role for the Private Sector in Public Statistics?

    10 August, 2004 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin, August 2004. - EPWP #04 - 02

  66. Structure of Business R&D: Recent Trends and Measurement Implications

    01 August, 2004 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin, Robert Inklaar, Bart Van Ark, and Sean M. Dougherty, August 2004. - EPWP #04 - 01

  67. ICT and Productivity in Europe and the United States: Where Do the Differences Come From?

    09 October, 2003 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Bart van Ark, Robert Inklaar, and Robert H. McGuckin, October 2003. - EPWP #03 – 05

  68. Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?

    27 June, 2003 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin and Ataman Ozyildirim, June 2003. - EPWP #03 – 04

  69. International Comparisons of R&D Expenditure: Does an R&D PPP make a difference?

    16 June, 2003 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Sean M. Dougherty, Robert Inklaar, Robert H. McGuckin, and Bart Van Ark, July 2003. - EPWP #03 - 03

  70. Employment Effects of the 'New Economy' A Comparison of the European Union and the United States

    20 March, 2003 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Bart van Ark, Robert Inklaar, Robert H. McGuckin, and Marcel P. Timmer, March 2003. - EPWP #03 - 02

  71. A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators

    25 February, 2003 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin, Ataman Ozyildirim and Victor Zarnowitz, February 2003. - EPWP #03 - 01

  72. 'Changing Gear' - Productivity, ICT and Services Industries: Europe and the United States

    04 December, 2002 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Bart van Ark, Robert Inklaar, and Robert H. McGuckin, December 2002. Click here to obtain the basic data: http://www.ggdc.net/ - EPWP #02 - 02

  73. Effects of Federalism and Privatization on Productivity in Chinese Firms

    29 January, 2002 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Sean M. Dougherty and Robert H. McGuckin, January 2002. - EPWP #02 - 01

  74. Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles

    18 December, 2001 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Victor Zarnowitz and Ataman Ozyildirim, December 2001. - EPWP #01 - 03

  75. Workforce Diversity and Productivity: An Analysis of Employer-Employee Match Data

    18 April, 2001 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    Arguments in support of workplace diversity suggest that we are a better society when we work together, but the actual economic costs and benefits to workforce diversity are unclear.

  76. Old and the New in the U.S. Economic Expansion

    02 January, 2001 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    How does the expansion of real economic activity in the United States since 1991 compare with its historical precedents in terms of length, strength, composition, and sources?

  77. Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make it More Timely

    16 November, 2000 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin, Ataman Ozyildirim and Victor Zarnowitz, November 2000. - EPWP #00 - 01

  78. Computers and Productivity: Are Aggregation Effects Important?

    02 August, 2000 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin and Kevin Stiroh, August 2000. - EPWP #00 - 04

  79. Do Computers Make Output Harder to Measure?

    06 April, 2000 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by Robert H. McGuckin and Kevin Stiroh, April 2000. - EPWP #00 - 03

  80. Impact of Vintage and Survival on Productivity: Evidence from Cohorts of U.S. Manufacturing Plants

    25 February, 2000 | Economics Program Working Paper Series

    by J. Bradford Jensen, Robert H. McGuckin and Kevin Stiroh, February 2000. - EPWP #00 - 02

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