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Many recovery scenarios are possible in 2020—all are challenging
  • Authors:

    Erik Lundh

  • Publication Date:
    April 2020

While new COVID-19 cases appear to have peaked, strict social distancing policies continue to cripple the US economy. At present, the first-order impacts of the social distancing campaign are unfolding, but second-order impacts will begin to emerge if the economy doesn’t start to reopen soon. However, reopening too rapidly risks a reacceleration in COVID-19 infections. The Conference Board has developed an industry-based economic model to forecast four distinct scenarios for the US economy in 2020. These scenarios yield annual economic contractions of -3.6 to -7.4 percent.

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