The Conference Board Economics Watch^® United States View

GDP growth will retreat toward its long-term trend in 2019. Business confidence has weakened as a result. Rising wages and capital costs along with policy uncertainty are creating more uncertain business conditions. Still, even though consumer expectations fell last month, the labor market remains robust and is supporting consumer spending growth. A recession is not immediately on the horizon. The Federal Reserve may also provide some relief to firms by slowing its path of rate increases so long as inflation remains contained. Businesses will need to adjust investment behavior to a slowing but still clearly growing economy.