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No signs of improvement across economic indicators
  • Authors:

    Yuan Gao

  • Publication Date:
    October 2018

Weakening growth continued in August, and loosening measures (i.e., RRR cuts and fiscal expansion) will take time to manifest. More stimulus is anticipated if the growth dynamics worsen (for example, the latest, just at the time of this release, includes both the fourth RRR cut in 2018 and an increase in export tax rebates). The confluence of downward pressures on trade, investment, and consumption growth are unique at this juncture and create new challenges to top-down policy approaches. Long-existing structural imbalances and debt overhang are beginning to bite, and slowing is likely to accelerate somewhat in the near term. However, several recent policy announcements may serve to provide stabilization. 

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