Weakening growth and trade uncertainty induce policy easing

Economic weakening extended through June. In response, July has seen policy support introduced to prop up short-term growth. The monetary environment is likely to loosen further, and fiscal expansion is expected to pick up. However, the easing program will likely be comparatively modest in scale and is therefore unlikely to reverse the decelerating growth trend. The government’s conflicting policy goals of deleveraging and currency stability effectively collide with growth support concerns, and this unfolding dynamic yields uncertainties about which way policy stance will move. The coming months will tell.