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While consumption and GDP growth started the year somewhat slower than 2017 levels, the economy remains on course to grow by nearly 3 percent in 2018 and 2019. Job creation is helping to fuel consumption growth and to drive unemployment rates below 4 percent for the first time in nearly two decades. The result is upward momentum for growth but also more risk of inflation, which will help keep the Federal Reserve on its current tightening path. Momentum for business investment has slowed recently but should receive continued support from the new tax law. While the economic outlook remains bright, businesses should be mindful of downside risks from tech sector turbulence and trade policy uncertainty.