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Strong CEO and consumer confidence, along with fiscal measures, should support robust growth of nearly 3 percent per year through the end of 2019. Weak consumption data will restrict Q1 GDP growth to just 1.9 percent; it has forced 2018 growth to be revised down from 3 to 2.8 percent. More importantly, downside risks to this optimistic forecast are rising. Uncertainty regarding trade policy and the recent decline of technology stocks could cause firms to delay investment. European and emerging market economies are cooling and may provide less external support to the US economy. For now, growth should remain strong, but businesses should track these risk factors carefully.