Strong Rebound in February, but Likely Fleeting

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Strong Rebound in February, but Likely Fleeting

Authors:
Yuan Gao
Publication Date:
April 2018

While growth appeared to be strong in January and February, CNY data distortions factored in significantly. We will have to wait for the full Q1 data to make a final determination. We continue to believe that growth will moderate over 2018 due to credit tightening, controls on investment, and a deflating real estate market. Rising tensions with trade partners in the US and Europe cloud the outlook for exports—one of the key growth drivers in 2017. It is important that members monitor these unfolding trade frictions and plan accordingly for contingencies.