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StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2017: How Much Will Stronger Global Growth Benefit a Recovery in Trade?
As the global economy keeps showing signs of strengthening, foreign trade has also exhibited a strong revival. The strengthening in global final demand, after a long period of weakness, has helped trade especially for durable consumer and investment goods. However, the global trade recovery should not be taken for granted. The shift toward more services-oriented economies in emerging markets as well as changes in the organization of global value chains might create a different relationship between trade and GDP going forward. Risk factors around high equity values, shocks to energy and commodity prices, and possible policy disruptions may also limit the trade recovery.