China Center Data Flash: July data suggest softening growth momentum
Data Flash is a brief interpretive summary of China’s official monthly economic data release.
- Following the surprisingly upbeat data from June, growth moderated in July across almost all monthly indicators, including industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI), retail sales, and exports/imports.
- Credit growth, however, picked up strongly in July, although money supply (M2) growth continued to moderate. This may reflect a new policy stance by the monetary authorities that could be called “monetary tightening plus credit easing.” Such a stance requires striking a number of difficult balance points, specifically: tamping down speculative money flows while keeping corporate borrowing growing.
- As anticipated, the housing sales rebound in June did not last. Housing sales growth and real estate investment growth both declined in July.
- Export growth slowed in July, with a notable drop in export growth to the US.