Our base scenario for the US economy sees a modest upside from stronger business confidence and possibly some tax relief later this year. Europe and Japan are also experiencing somewhat stronger internal growth dynamics. In contrast, various uncertainties are weighing on emerging markets’ growth prospects, especially in India, Mexico, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Globally, 2017 growth is projected at about 2.9 percent—a notch up from earlier projections. For the medium term, there are no signs as yet that policy changes will raise the trend, and possible disruptive forces from trade and immigration policies create substantial downside risk around the medium-term growth outlook.