The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. 
China Center Chart Dive: New GDP Projections Suggest Ongoing "Soft Fall" to Continue
  • Authors:

    Yuan Gao

  • Publication Date:
    December 2016

The Conference Board has released its updated global growth projections for 2017, and the next two five-year periods. Our projection for China shows a continuation of the “long soft fall” in GDP growth to 3.8 percent in 2017, down from 3.9 percent in 2016. For the next five years (2017-2021), the projected average annual growth rate is 3.2 percent, with a further slowing to 2.8 percent from 2022-2026.

The medium-term slowdown is largely driven by weakening investment growth. Although capital deepening (i.e., increasing capital per worker) will remain the dominant growth driver, capital returns will decline as a function of the rapid capital accumulation in the past two decades and the law of diminishing returns. Meanwhile, labor quantity has become a drag on growth, as the working-age population (15 to 64) began to decline in 2015 and will decline more rapidly henceforth. 

Pricing
China Center Publications
Members: Sign in to see if this product is complimentary with your membership.
Non-members: Not available
(Email us to learn more about membership
)