The Conference Board Economics Watch^® United States View

GDP grew at a paltry 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015. When large inventory buildup is subtracted, GDP actually shrank by 0.5 percent. Some rebound in Q2 is expected, but growth will be limited by a big inventory overhang, lingering effects of a stronger dollar and investment cuts in oil-producing sectors. Even consumers turned a little more cautious in April, but private wages are moving higher, providing more support for the only bright spot in the economy. The elevated personal savings rate and pent-up demand in housing are important signposts on how long the economy can perform above its medium-trend 2 percent growth path.