China’s economic and political development path to date has left it at an economic policy crossroads. This paper develops a portrait of China today that outlines crucial factors for foreign investors in the near, medium, and long term. It builds and expands on the analysis provided in the Research Report on this topic by:
- exploring the trends and dynamics of the slowdown and how China’s economy got to where it is today;
- analyzing China’s productivity crisis;
- explaining the roles that current investment, real estate, market volatility, credit, and debt are playing in the slowdown;
- outlining the involvement of China’s government in the economy and the policy reforms necessary for returning to a sustainable growth path;
- describing the different scenarios that could result depending on the actions of China’s government;
- detailing the methodology behind these conclusions; and
- specifying what to expect in 2015 and beyond in the MNC operating environment.