China Center LEI Commentary: Increase in LEI slows, as real estate gives back gains from August
Our Cookie Policy has been updated! The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "OK", you acknowledge our privacy policy and consent to the use of cookies.  Our Privacy Policy has been updated! Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy and our privacy policy. 
TCB Tourch
Loading...
  • logoImage
  •  
    • NORTH AMERICA
    • EUROPE
    • ASIA
  • 2

    Close
    • Insights
        • Insights
        • Explore by Center
          • Explore by Center
          • China

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

        • Explore by Content Type
          • Explore by Content Type
          • Reports

          • Upcoming Webcasts

          • On Demand Webcasts

          • Podcasts

          • Charts & Infographics

        • Trending Topics
          • Trending Topics
          • Artificial Intelligence (AI)

          • Navigating Washington

          • Geopolitics

          • US Economic Forecast

          • Sustainability

          • Future of Work

    • Events
        • Events
        • Upcoming Events
          • Upcoming Events
          • Future: People Asia

          • Reimagine: The Future of Business

          • Explore all Upcoming Events

        • Member-Exclusive Programs
          • Member-Exclusive Programs
          • Center Briefings

          • Experts Live

          • Roundtables

          • Working Groups

          • Expert Briefings

    • Data
        • Data
        • Consumer Confidence Index

        • Data Central

        • TCB Benchmarking

        • Employment Trends Index

        • Global Economic Outlook

        • Leading Economic Indicators

        • Help Wanted OnLine

        • Labor Markets

        • Measure of CEO Confidence

        • Human Capital Benchmarking &
          Data Analytics

        • CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard

    • Centers
        • Centers
        • Our Centers
          • Our Centers
          • China

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

        • Center Membership
          • Center Membership
          • What Is a Center?

          • Benefits of Center Membership

          • Join a Center

    • Councils
        • Councils
        • Find a Council
          • Find a Council
          • China

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

        • Council Membership
          • Council Membership
          • What is a Council?

          • Benefits of Council Membership

          • Apply to a Council

    • Membership
        • Membership
        • Why Become a Member?
          • Why Become a Member?
          • Benefits of Membership

          • Check if Your Organization is a Member

          • Speak to a Membership Associate

        • Types of Membership
          • Types of Membership
          • Council

          • China

          • Economy, Strategy & Finance

          • Governance & Sustainability

          • Human Capital

          • Insights

          • TCB Advisory

        • Already a Member?
          • Already a Member?
          • Sign In to myTCB®

          • Executive Communities

          • Member-Exclusive Programs

    • About Us
        • About Us
        • Who We Are
          • Who We Are
          • About Us

          • In the News

          • Press Releases

          • Our History

          • Support Our Work

          • Locations

          • Contact Us

        • Our Community
          • Our Community
          • Our Leadership

          • Our Experts

          • Trustees

          • Voting Members

          • Global Counsellors

          • Careers

          • This Week @ TCB

    • Careers
    • This Week @ TCB
    • Sign In to myTCB®
      • NORTH AMERICA
      • EUROPE
      • ASIA
    • Insights
      • Insights
      • Explore by Center
        • Explore by Center
        • China

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

      • Explore by Content Type
        • Explore by Content Type
        • Reports

        • Upcoming Webcasts

        • On Demand Webcasts

        • Podcasts

        • Charts & Infographics

      • Trending Topics
        • Trending Topics
        • Artificial Intelligence (AI)

        • Navigating Washington

        • Geopolitics

        • US Economic Forecast

        • Sustainability

        • Future of Work

    • Events
      • Events
      • Upcoming Events
        • Upcoming Events
        • Future: People Asia

        • Reimagine: The Future of Business

        • Explore all Upcoming Events

      • Member-Exclusive Programs
        • Member-Exclusive Programs
        • Center Briefings

        • Experts Live

        • Roundtables

        • Working Groups

        • Expert Briefings

    • Data
      • Data
      • Consumer Confidence Index

      • Data Central

      • TCB Benchmarking

      • Employment Trends Index

      • Global Economic Outlook

      • Leading Economic Indicators

      • Help Wanted OnLine

      • Labor Markets

      • Measure of CEO Confidence

      • Human Capital Benchmarking & Data Analytics

      • CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard

    • Centers
      • Centers
      • Our Centers
        • Our Centers
        • China

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

      • Center Membership
        • Center Membership
        • What is a Center?

        • Benefits of Center Membership

        • Join a Center

    • Councils
      • Councils
      • Find a Council
        • Find a Council
        • China

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

      • Council Membership
        • Council Membership
        • What is a Council?

        • Benefits of Council Membership

        • Apply to a Council

    • Membership
      • Membership
      • Why Become a Member?
        • Why Become a Member?
        • Benefits of Membership

        • Check if Your Organization is a Member

        • Speak to a Membership Associate

      • Types of Membership
        • Types of Membership
        • Council

        • China

        • Economy, Strategy & Finance

        • Governance & Sustainability

        • Human Capital

        • Insights

        • TCB Advisory

      • Already a Member?
        • Already a Member?
        • Sign In to myTCB®

        • Executive Communities

        • Member-Exclusive Programs

    • About Us
      • About Us
      • Who We Are
        • Who We Are
        • About Us

        • In the News

        • Press Releases

        • This Week @ TCB

        • Our History

        • Support Our Work

        • Locations

        • Contact Us

      • Our Community
        • Our Community
        • Our Leadership

        • Our Experts

        • Trustees

        • Voting Members

        • Global Counsellors

        • Careers

        • This Week @ TCB

    • Careers
    • Sign In to myTCB®
    • Download TCB Insights App
  • Insights
    Insights

    Our research and analysis have helped the world's leading companies navigate challenges and seize opportunities for over 100 years.

    Explore All Research

    Economic Indicators

    • Explore by Center
    • China
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Explore by Content Type
    • Reports
    • Upcoming Webcasts
    • On Demand Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Charts & Infographics
    • Trending Topics
    • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
    • Navigating Washington
    • Geopolitics
    • US Economic Forecast
    • Sustainability
    • Future of Work
  • Events
    Events

    Our in-person and virtual events offer unmatched opportunities for professional development, featuring top experts and practitioners.

    See Everything Happening This Week

    Sponsor a Program

    • Upcoming Events
    • Future: People Asia

      September 04 - 05, 2025

      Reimagine: The Future of Business

      November 12 - 13, 2025

    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Center Briefings
    • Experts Live
    • Roundtables
    • Working Groups
    • Expert Briefings
    • Explore by Type
    • Events
    • Webcasts
    • Podcasts
    • Member-Exclusive Programs
    • Center Briefings
    • Experts Live
    • Roundtables
    • Working Groups
    • Expert Briefings
  • Data
    Corporate Disclosure Data

    TCB Benchmarking

    Real-time data & analytical tools to benchmark your governance, compensation, environmental, human capital management (HCM) and social practices against US public companies.

    Economic Data

    All Data

    See current direction and trends across key indicators

    Consumer Confidence Index

    US consumers' thoughts on the economy, jobs, finances and more

    Data Central

    One-stop, member-exclusive portal for the entire suite of indicators

    Labor Markets

    Covering all aspects of labor markets, from monthly development to long-term trends

    Measure of CEO Confidence

    Examines the health of the US economy from the perspective of CEOs

     

    Recession & Growth Trackers

    See the current and future state of 16 economies.

    Global Economic Outlook

    Track the latest short-, medium-, and long-term growth outlooks for 77 economies

    Leading Economic Indicators

    Track the state of the business cycle for 12 global economies across Asia and Europe

    Help Wanted OnLine

    Track the status of job markets across the US through online job listings

    Other Featured Data

    Human Capital Analytics Tools

    Tools to understand human capital management and corporate performance

    CMO+CCO Meter Dashboard

    Tracks the impact, resources, and satisfaction of CMOs and CCOs

  • Centers
    Centers

    Centers offer access to world-class experts, research, Events, and senior executive Communities.

    Our Centers
    • China
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    Center Membership
    • What Is a Center?
    • Benefits of Center Membership
    • Join a Center
  • Councils
    Councils

    Councils are invitation-only, peer-led communities of senior executives that come together to exchange knowledge, accelerate career development, and advance their function.

    Find a Council
    • China
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    Council Membership
    • What Is a Council?
    • Benefits of Council Membership
    • Apply to a Council
  • Membership
    Membership

    Membership in The Conference Board arms your team with an arsenal of knowledge, networks, and expertise that's unmatched in scope and depth.

    • Why Become a Member?
    • Benefits of Membership
    • Check if Your Organization is a Member
    • Speak to a Membership Associate
    • Types of Membership
    • Council
    • China
    • Economy, Strategy & Finance
    • Governance & Sustainability
    • Human Capital
    • Insights
    • TCB Advisory
    • Already a Member?
    • Sign in to myTCB®
    • Executive Communities
    • Member-Exclusive Programs
  • About Us
    About Us

    The Conference Board is the global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®. For over 100 years, our cutting-edge research, data, events and executive networks have helped the world's leading companies understand the present and shape the future.

    Learn more about Membership

    • Who We Are
    • About Us
    • In the News
    • Press Releases
    • Our History
    • Support Our Work
    • Locations
    • Contact Us
    • Our Community
    • Our Leadership
    • Our Experts
    • Trustees
    • Voting Members
    • Careers
    • This Week @ TCB
Check if You're a Member
Create Account
Forgot Your Password?

Members of The Conference Board get exclusive access to the full range of products and services that deliver Trusted Insights for What's Ahead ® including webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to conferences and events.

  • Menu

    Topics

  • Support Us

    Full Listing

  • View all Publications
Copy Link
Share
  • Email
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • X
  • Copy Link Copy Link

China Center LEI Commentary: Increase in LEI slows, as real estate gives back gains from August

  • Authors:

    Andrew Polk

  • Publication Date:
    November 01, 2012

This China Center members-only report provides interpretive comments on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China.

The LEI for China increased by 0.3 percent in September from the previous month, well down from August’s 1.7 percent increase. Following an acceleration of the LEI in August, which was due almost exclusively to a large jump in real estate activity, the slowdown of this month was due to a pullback in the real estate sector. This came as a surprise during a month that is typically a seasonal high point for real estate sales.  

  • While other indicators across the board continued to level out, indicating that economic growth should stabilize somewhat, the quick reversal in the real estate market underscores the difficulty of achieving a sustained expansion in China at this time. 
  • Credit expansion continued to add upward movement to the LEI in September, as monetary policy remains relatively loose and the PBoC has stepped up liquidity management by infusing record cash amounts into the banking system. Additionally, credit growth outside of the formal banking system was particularly strong in September. This development bodes well for the revival of credit demand (and thus increased economic activity) but will exacerbate strains in the already fragile financial system, and further erode the effectiveness of monetary policy if the trend continues. 
  • Other indicators, from consumer sentiment, to manufacturing, and even exports saw slight increases in the month, bolstering our expectation that growth may begin (or perhaps already has begun) to pick up moderately in the near-term. However, as highlighted above, the acceleration will remain fragile, and potentially short-lived – particularly if administrative measures in the real estate market continue to suppress investment.
  • Increased infrastructure spending looks to be underpinning growth, but the share of that type of capital formation in overall fixed asset investment remains relatively small. To create a stronger acceleration, the manufacturing and industrial sectors will be required to resume investing – after running down inventories and cleaning up balance sheets, which will take time – and both sectors must begin to achieve much higher productivity of capital. 
  • Furthermore, medium-term imperatives to shift away from investment toward consumption remain. Economic activity may pick up a bit in the short term, but overall the downward trend in growth appears intact. Our current real GDP growth projection for China in 2013 is 6.9 percent, much lower than many other forecasts. 

  • CREATE AN ACCOUNT SIGN IN

Conference Board Sample Web Chat
chatbot-Icon TCB Logo
chatbot-Icon
C-Suite Insights - Stay updated on the biggest issues facing business executives.
ABOUT US
  • Who We Are
  • Annual Report
  • Our History
  • Our Experts
  • Our Leadership
  • In the News
  • Press Releases
MEMBERSHIP
  • Become a Member
  • Sign In to myTCB®
  • Access Experts
  • Member-Only Events
  • Data & Benchmarking
  • Manage Account
EXPLORE
  • Centers
  • Councils
  • Latest Research
  • Events
  • Webcasts
  • Podcasts
  • This Week @ TCB
CONTACT US
  • North America
    +1 212 759 0900
    customer.service@tcb.org
  • Europe/Africa/Middle East
    +32 2 675 5405
    brussels@tcb.org
  • Asia
    Hong Kong | +852 2804 1000
    Singapore | +65 8298 3403
    service.ap@tcb.org
CAREERS
  • See Open Positions
Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Event Code of Conduct | Trademarks
© 2025 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board.
The use of all The Conference Board data and materials is subject to the Terms of Use. Reprint requests are reviewed individually and may be subject to additional fees.The Conference Board reserves the right to deny any request.
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Event Code of Conduct | Trademarks
© 2025 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board.
The use of all data from The Conference Board data and materials is subject to the Terms of Use. Reprint requests are reviewed individually and may be subject to additional fees.The Conference Board reserves the right to deny any request.

Thank you for signing up. You will now receive CEO Insights for What's Ahead every Wednesday morning. You can unsubscribe at any time or manage your preferences to receive more content from The Conference Board.

Important: Your Membership subscription payment is past due. We have not yet received your Membership payment. Please click the button below to pay your invoice.

Pay Invoice

Announcing The Conference Board AI Virtual Conference Series

Explore the Impact of AI on Your Business

Members receive complimentary registration - Learn more >>