U.S. steps up while Europe slips

• Recent U.S. economic measures perform above expectations
• Steady 2.5%+ economic growth in U.S. is unlikely
• More likely, U.S. growth remains volatile and sluggish until at least the middle of next year
• A deep recession in Europe would create significant additional risk for the United States through trade, investment, and financial channels
• A European sovereign or bank default provokes a worst-case scenario