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2009 Outlook for the United States, Euro Area, and China

While there is a chance that the U.S. and European economies will experience a modest recovery by the second half of 2009, downside risks remain. Risks include limited momentum from stimulus, an inability to stem foreclosures, and tight lending in the United States and wages in Europe. Emerging economies in Asia could make up about 80 percent of global GDP growth if factories in China are able to rebound from a May 2008 earthquake and the country can stave off a decline in exports.

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