CEO Roundtable: Priorities for 2024

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

The Committee for Economic Development, the public policy center of The Conference Board (CED), convened a CEO Trustee roundtable discussion on December 15, 2023, to discuss how 2023’s geopolitical and economic disruptions have impacted US and global economic recovery, and their insights for policy priorities for 2024. During the webcast, CEO Roundtable: Policy Priorities for 2024, the CEOs focused on a wide variety of challenges, from geopolitics and the domestic economy to the use of AI and broader issues surrounding the labor market, including demand for labor and whether workers will return to the office. Following are key insights. Watch or listen to the webcast here. Broad concerns include:

• Geopolitics: Businesses must remain vigilant when it comes to high-risk events currently underway, and those that could unfold. They will need to keep a watchful eye on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as tensions over Taiwan; and make assessments about risk under various scenarios
• National Debt: The current decade has seen an enormous increase in the country’s debt, with the cost of servicing it increasing with inflation and higher interest rates. Business leaders across all sectors will need to watch government policy in this area closely.  
• Inflation: Business must remain vigilant even as the Fed holds interest rates steady. There remain questions as to whether the Fed can reach 2 percent inflation and if so, whether that can hold. Reaching this figure may mean more wealth and income inequality by keeping the salaries of low earners steady; the long-term impacts of that policy would be negative.
• Growth & Consumer Spending: Seventy percent of GDP is driven by consumer spending. Now, the question is whether the top 20 percent of consumers can continue to drive consumption. 
• Housing Market: Any correction to rates will not result in a significant change to the housing market, as rates will remain high enough that people will continue to avoid mortgage refinancing. If unemployment remains low and interest rates come down a little, there may be an asset bubble as the price of assets remain elevated. Towards the end of this decade, there is a risk of asset valuation being so high that it provokes a correction.
• Globalization/Supply chains: Highly polarized political climates in nations around the world as well as other trends force an examination of whether the globalization that the West has enjoyed may be coming to its end. Recent challenges highlight the need for companies to build more resilient supply chains—in many instances, through friend-shoring and re-shoring.
• Technology and AI: Businesses across all sectors must work to navigate the benefits and risks of rapidly advancing AI and develop action plans or risk being left behind.  AI is already being used in hiring, with tools able to predict qualities that would make a successful employee. However, there are potential dangers of bias in relying too heavily on AI in the hiring process – using AI in hiring requires heavy human supervision
• Manufacturing Renaissance Labor Shortages: The manufacturing sector will see hundreds of thousands of job openings. One quarter of the manufacturing workforce is over 55. A government solution will likely come too late; instead, the private sector must focus on building apprenticeship programs and collaborations between employers and community colleges and other training institutions.  
• Demand for Labor: is cooling, and there is a move towards more conservative hiring. As the economy looks more uncertain, savings run out, credit card debt goes up, people are taking fewer risks in changing roles. Businesses are considering whether this is a time to outsource their workforce, looking particularly to India with its degree of political stability and high supply of talent. 
• Cities Comeback Stalling: The lack of workers commuting into cities has impacted cities’ tax bases, posing risk to maintaining services, including security as well as sanitation. The commercial real estate market currently stands at a very troublesome low.
• The New World of Work: Workers continue to desire flexible work arrangements; however, they also desire a place to come to work to be able to collaborate with their colleagues. Roles posted that are labeled as remote see 50 percent more applicants than those that are not labeled remote. However, many of these applicants will then ask whether the company has a physical location – this is not only a business need, but a sociological desire of the workforce.