For now, tariffs, though harmful, are unlikely to push the global economy into an immediate reversal. But failure to defuse trade tensions soon could make businesses hold off on investment and hiring.

Ahead of our annual Global Economic Outlook, available on November 13th, here are some highlights:

• Business cycle factors point at maturity, but we see no signs yet of highly elevated recession risks
• The US economy may prolong its strength through tax cuts and fiscal spending, but demand expansion ultimately meets supply constraints
• Emerging markets face pressure from US tightening, causing currency weakness and inflationary pressures
• Geo-economic and political factors, such as trade disputes or a hard Brexit, mostly affect medium-term growth potential through weaker investment and slower productivity