Another strong month for the ETI
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in July, after increasing in June. The index now stands at 109.89, up from 108.72 (a downward revision) in June. The change represents a 5.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.
“The growth in the Employment Trends Index remains strong, supported by positive contributions from all of its components,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “We expect economic activity to remain strong in the coming months, and the rapid expansion of employment should continue despite the very tight labor market.”
July’s increase in the ETI was fueled by positive contributions from all eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Industrial Production, Job Openings, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, The Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, and the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get.”
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)*
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)**
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months
Note: This month's Employment Trends Index reflects historical revisions in Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ 2018 Publication Schedule (10 AM ET)