The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in August
Economic Growth Should Continue Through Second Half
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.4 percent in August to 128.8 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.6 percent increase in June.
“The August gain is consistent with continuing growth in the U.S. economy for the second half of the year, which may even see a moderate pick up,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “While the economic impact of recent hurricanes is not fully reflected in the leading indicators yet, the underlying trends suggest that the current solid pace of growth should continue in the near term.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in August, remaining at 115.8 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.1 percent increase in June.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in August to 125.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in July and a 0.2 percent increase in June.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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