Press Release / News
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased
18 May, 2017


The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in April   

Economic Expansion to Continue, and Possibly Strengthen, in Near Term

 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.3 percent in April to 126.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in March, and a 0.5 percent increase in February.

“The recent trend in the U.S. LEI, led by the positive outlook of consumers and financial markets, continues to point to a growing economy, perhaps even a cyclical pickup,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “First quarter’s weak GDP growth is likely a temporary hiccup as the economy returns to its long-term trend of about 2 percent. While the majority of leading indicators have been contributing positively in recent months, housing permits followed by average workweek in manufacturing have been the sources of weakness among the U.S. LEI components.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in April to 115.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in March, and a 0.1 percent increase in February.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in April to 124.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in March and a 0.2 percent increase in February.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

 

For full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

 

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, June 22 at 10 A.M. ET.

For further information contact:

Jonathan Liu
1 212 339 0257
Jonathan.liu@conference-board.org

Carol Courter
1 212 339 0232
carol.courter@conference-board.org

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Download

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Leading Economic Index for:

  • Australia 0.2%
  • Brazil 0.5%
  • China 1.3%
  • Euro Area 0.9%
  • France 0.7%
  • Germany 0.5%
  • Global 0.6%
  • India 1.2%
  • Japan 0.3%
  • Korea 1.1%
  • Mexico 0.9%
  • Spain 0.3%
  • U.K. 0.2%
  • U.S. 1.2%
  • International Labor Comparisons:
  • Visit ILC website
  • Productivity:
  • Visit Total Economy Database™ website
  • Global Economic Outlook:
  • Visit Global Economic Outlook website