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Will trade disruptions derail the global growth momentum?
View the June 2018 press release here.
Trade policy risk has now clearly overtaken other financial and economic risks as the biggest threat to the global economy’s current growth momentum. Nevertheless, confidence among consumers and businesses remains strong, and there are no obvious signs of elevated recession risk. A possible escalation in tit-for-tat tariffs or quotas is unlikely to push the global economy into reverse immediately. However, uncertainty could exacerbate a slowdown in global growth if businesses hold off on investment and hiring. Policy risks are therefore more likely to bring recession risks forward. This, combined with the anticipated maturing of the business cycle especially in mature economies, has led us to revise global growth for this year to 3.2 percent, slightly down from our February projection of 3.3 percent.
The latest issue of StraightTalk® analyses the short and medium-term outlook for the global economy and discusses possible effects of potential trade disruptions. Furthermore, it introduces the new global consumer confidence index by The Conference Board.
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The next quarterly update of The Conference Board’s Global Economic Outlook is scheduled for September 2018.