Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Monday, June 16, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in April.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased marginally in April. Between October 2013 and April 2014, the leading economic index increased 1.1 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate), slower than its increase of 1.8 percent (about a 3.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, edged up in April. In the six-month period ending in April, the coincident economic index increased 1.2 percent (about a 2.4 percent annual rate), an improvement from its increase of 0.4 percent (about a 0.9 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. The strengths among the components have remained very widespread, with four out of five components advancing in the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased about 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, after advancing 0.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2013.
- The LEI for Spain has been moderately trending upward for a year now, but its six-month growth has slowed in recent months. Meanwhile, the CEI has been increasing slightly in recent months, and as a result its six-month growth rate continued to improve. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economic recovery should continue at a modest pace, but a strong pick-up in growth is unlikely in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in April. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are job vacancies, the long-term government bond yield (inverted), and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the order books survey.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in April, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in March and declined 0.2 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.1 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in April. The positive contributors — starting from the largest positive contributor — are industrial production excluding construction, the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, real imports*, and employment*.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 94.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in March and increased 0.2 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.2 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 2 P.M. (ET) June 12, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
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