Global Business Cycle Indicators

Spain

Latest Press Release

Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.

Released: Tuesday, July 14, 2015

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in May.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined slightly in May, with the long-term government bond yield (inverted) making the largest negative contribution. Between November 2014 and May 2015, the leading economic index advanced by 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate), slightly slower than its growth of 1.6 percent (about a 3.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread over the past six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, increased in May. In the six-month period ending May 2015, the coincident economic indicator grew by 1.8 percent (about a 3.6 percent annual rate), up from 1.0 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident components have remained very widespread. Meanwhile, real GDP increased by about 3.8 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of this year, after advancing by 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of last year.
  • In May, the LEI declined for the first time since last fall. As a result, its six-month growth has moderated over the past six months. Meanwhile, the CEI continues to increase at a modest pace, and its six-month growth rate has improved. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is likely to continue to advance into the fall, but the pace of growth may moderate somewhat.

LEADING INDICATORS. Among the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain, only job vacancies increased in May. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—were the long-term government bond yield (inverted), the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, the order books survey, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.

With the decrease of 0.4 percent in May, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 103.1 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in April and increased 0.2 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.5 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in May. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are employment*, final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, real imports*, and retail sales.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 96.3 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.5 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.8 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) July 9, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.

The next release is

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program: indicators@conference-board.org

Media Contacts:

Carol Courter:
1 212 339 0232
carol.courter@conference-board.org

Jonathan Liu:
1 212 339 0257
jonathan.liu@conference-board.org

©The Conference Board 2015. All data contained in this table are protected by United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed are provided for informational purposes only and may only be accessed, reviewed, and/or used in with the permission accordance of The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or license agreement and the Terms of Use displayed on our website at www.conference-board.org. The data and analysis contained herein may not be used, redistributed, published, or posted by any means without express written permission from The Conference Board.

COPYRIGHT TERMS OF USE

All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.

You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.

TRADEMARKS

"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.

Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.

Download related PDFs

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

Straight Talk November 2014

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2015: Are We Asleep at the Wheel?

Second quarter GDP disappoints, but second half of 2015 will be better

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis today reported 2.3 percent annualized growth in real Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter of 2015.

Read the article
Archives