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Released: Tuesday, July 14, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in May.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined slightly in May, with the long-term government bond yield (inverted) making the largest negative contribution. Between November 2014 and May 2015, the leading economic index advanced by 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate), slightly slower than its growth of 1.6 percent (about a 3.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread over the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, increased in May. In the six-month period ending May 2015, the coincident economic indicator grew by 1.8 percent (about a 3.6 percent annual rate), up from 1.0 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident components have remained very widespread. Meanwhile, real GDP increased by about 3.8 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of this year, after advancing by 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of last year.
- In May, the LEI declined for the first time since last fall. As a result, its six-month growth has moderated over the past six months. Meanwhile, the CEI continues to increase at a modest pace, and its six-month growth rate has improved. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is likely to continue to advance into the fall, but the pace of growth may moderate somewhat.
LEADING INDICATORS. Among the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain, only job vacancies increased in May. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—were the long-term government bond yield (inverted), the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, the order books survey, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.
With the decrease of 0.4 percent in May, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 103.1 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in April and increased 0.2 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.5 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in May. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are employment*, final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, real imports*, and retail sales.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 96.3 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.5 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.8 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) July 9, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
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