Global Business Cycle Indicators

Mexico

Press Releases

Latest
Archive

Data

Purchase Data

Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

Latest Press Release

Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.

Released: Monday, April 20, 2015

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico remained unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in February.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico was unchanged in February following sharp declines in the previous two months. Gains in oil and stock prices were offset by large negative contributions from net inefficient inventories, the construction component of industrial production, and real exchange rate. Between August 2014 and February 2015, the leading economic index contracted 5.2 percent (about a −10.2 percent annual rate), a substantial reversal from the 3.3 percent increase (about a 6.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased modestly again in February. The coincident economic index grew 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending February 2015, down slightly from 1.9 percent (about a 3.8 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2014, up from 2.1 percent growth (annual rate) in the third quarter.
  • The LEI for Mexico held steady in February after declining sharply in the previous two months. Nevertheless, the six-month growth rate of the LEI remains in deep negative territory. Meanwhile, a moderate upward trend in the CEI continued through February. The persistent widespread weaknesses in the LEI suggest that Mexico’s economy is unlikely to improve in the coming months.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors to the index—from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one—were the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and stock prices. Net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component, and (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in February. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

Holding steady in February, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 101.2 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 1.4 percent in January and declined 3.4 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 5.2 percent, with only one of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors—from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one—were number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales. Industrial production declined in February.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 114.9 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in January and increased 0.2 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 1.5 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. April 16, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program: indicators@conference-board.org

Media Contacts:

Carol Courter:
1 212 339 0232
carol.courter@conference-board.org

Jonathan Liu:
1 212 339 0257
Jonathan.liu@conference-board.org

©The Conference Board 2013. All data contained in this table are protected by United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed are provided for informational purposes only and may only be accessed, reviewed, and/or used in with the permission accordance of The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or license agreement and the Terms of Use displayed on our website at www.conference-board.org. The data and analysis contained herein may not be used, redistributed, published, or posted by any means without express written permission from The Conference Board.

COPYRIGHT TERMS OF USE

All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.

You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.

TRADEMARKS

"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.

Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.

Download related PDFs

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

StraightTalk®

Straight Talk November 2014

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2015: Are We Asleep at the Wheel?

From the Chief Economist

The US Economy is Slowing Down

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis today reported a very weak 0.2 percent annualized growth in real Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2015...

Read the article
Archives

  • Human Capital
  • Back to Top