Global Business Cycle Indicators

Mexico

Latest Press Release

Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.

Released: Monday, August 17, 2015

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in June.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in June following a decline in May. Net insufficient inventories* and the (inverted) real exchange rate made the largest negative contributions to the index. During the first half of 2015, the leading economic index declined by 1.4 percent (about a −2.7 percent annual rate), an improvement from the decline of 4.4 percent (about a −8.6 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. However, the weaknesses among the leading indicators remained more widespread than the strengths in the last six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, improved slightly in June. The coincident economic index increased by 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) in the first half of 2015, only slightly slower than its 1.7 percent increase (about a 3.4 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded by 1.6 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of this year, down from 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2014.
  • The LEI for Mexico fell again in June, and has declined in four of the last six months. As a result, the six-month change in the LEI remains negative. However, the rate of decline has moderated considerably since the second half of last year. Meanwhile, the six-month growth rate of the CEI remains relatively steady. Taken together, the improvement in the six-month change in the LEI and the steady growth in the CEI suggest that Mexico’s economic expansion will continue, however its rate of expansion is unlikely to pick up sharply for the remainder of this year.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in June. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— are the industrial production construction component, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and stock prices. Net insufficient inventories* and the (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in June. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.8 percent decrease in June, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 101.2 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.6 percent in May and remained unchanged in April. During the six-month span through June, the index decreased 1.4 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 41.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in June. The positive contributors are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales. Industrial production declined in June.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 115.9 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.4 percent, with two of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. August 13, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico that’s based on The Conference Board’s estimates is retail sales. The series in The Conference Board LEI for Mexico that’s based on The Conference Board’s estimates is net insufficient inventories.

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, September 15 at 10:00 AM CT; 11:00 AM (ET).

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program: indicators@conference-board.org

Media Contacts:

Carol Courter:
1 212 339 0232
carol.courter@conference-board.org

Jonathan Liu:
1 212 339 0257
Jonathan.liu@conference-board.org

©The Conference Board 2015. All data contained in this table are protected by United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed are provided for informational purposes only and may only be accessed, reviewed, and/or used in with the permission accordance of The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or license agreement and the Terms of Use displayed on our website at www.conference-board.org. The data and analysis contained herein may not be used, redistributed, published, or posted by any means without express written permission from The Conference Board.

COPYRIGHT TERMS OF USE

All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.

You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.

TRADEMARKS

"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.

Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.

Download related PDFs

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

Straight Talk November 2014

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2015: Are We Asleep at the Wheel?

U.S. economy on moderate growth - but downside risks from global developments and weak investment activity remain

Gross domestic product grew at a 2.3 percent annual pace in the spring, up from the first quarter’s 0.6 percent pace.

Read the article
Archives