Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Friday, March 14, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in January.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell for a second consecutive month in January, with widespread declines among its components. Between July 2013 and January 2014, the leading economic index declined by 0.6 percent (about a -1.3 percent annual rate), following a decline of 1.1 percent (about a -2.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators were balanced in the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly again in January. The coincident economic index grew 0.9 percent (about a 1.8 percent annual rate) between July 2013 and January 2014, picking up from the increase of 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 0.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, down from the 3.9 percent growth (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2013.
- The LEI for Mexico has been declining for two consecutive months, following no change in October and November. As a result, its six-month growth became slightly negative, although the rate of decline has not been as sharp as last summer. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico increased modestly again in January, and its six-month growth rate has been slightly rising since the first half of last year. Despite the steady but moderate growth in the CEI, the negative growth in the LEI over the last six months points to increasing downside risks to the pace of economic expansion in the first half of 2014.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined in January. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one— are net insufficient inventories, stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil. The industrial production construction component and the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in January.
With the 0.8 percent decrease in January, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 122.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in December and remained unchanged in November. Over the six-month span through January, the index decreased 0.6 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in January. The positive contributors —from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one— are retail sales* and number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Industrial production declined in January.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in January, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 122.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in December and increased 0.3 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 0.9 percent, with two of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. March 13, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.
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