Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2005 | Benchmark Revisions - January 2015|
Latest Press Release
Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.
Released: Thursday, June 11, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea increased 0.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea declined 0.1 percent in April.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in April, with large positive contributions from the value of machinery orders and stock prices more than offsetting negative contributions from the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments and real exports FOB. The leading economic index increased by 2.2 percent (about a 4.5 percent annual rate) between October 2014 and April 2015, better than its increase of 1.6 percent (about a 3.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. The strengths among the leading indicators remain more widespread than the weaknesses.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly in April. Between October 2014 and April 2015, the coincident economic index grew by 1.1 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate), after increasing only 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP expanded at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2015, up from 1.1 percent (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2014.
- The LEI for Korea increased moderately in April, and its six-month growth rate has improved compared to six months ago. Meanwhile, the CEI for Korea decreased slightly, but its six-month change is also significantly higher than six months ago. Taken together, the behavior of both indexes suggests that the current pace of economic expansion is likely to continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in April. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the value of machinery orders, stock prices, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, and private construction orders. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments and real exports FOB.
With the 0.6 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 111.0 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 2.0 percent in March and declined 0.6 percent in February. Over the six-month span through April, the leading economic index increased 2.2 percent, with four of the six components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in April. The positive contributors were the wholesale and retail sales component and monthly cash earnings*. Total employment and industrial production declined in April.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in April, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 107.8 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in March and increased 0.1 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on June 5, 2015.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Indicator Program: email@example.com
1 212 339 0232
1 212 339 0257
All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.
You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.
"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.
Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.