|Benchmark Revisions - September 2005 | Benchmark Revisions - January 2015|
Latest Press Release
Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.
Released: Monday, September 14, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea declined 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea increased 0.4 percent in July.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea declined in July for the third consecutive month, with the index of inventories to shipments and private construction orders making large negative contributions. The leading economic index increased by 0.6 percent (about a 1.3 percent annual rate) between January and July 2015, slower than its increase of 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. The weaknesses among the leading indicators are slightly more widespread than the strengths.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, increased in July. From January to July 2015, the coincident economic index was flat, after increasing 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP expanded at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2015, down from 3.3 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
- The LEI for Korea decreased again in July and as a result its six-month growth rate has slowed compared to six months ago. Meanwhile, the CEI for Korea increased, but its six-month growth rate has also slowed compared to the final half of last year. Taken together, the recent behavior of both indexes suggests that Korea’s economic expansion should continue, albeit at a moderate pace.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in July. The positive contributors were value of machinery orders and real exports FOB. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, private construction orders, stock prices, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds.
With the 0.3 percent decrease in July, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 109.3 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in June and declined 1.2 percent in May. Over the six-month span through July, the leading economic index increased 0.6 percent, with two of the six components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 41.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in July. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were total employment, the wholesale and retail sales component, and monthly cash earnings*. Industrial production declined in July.
With the 0.4 percent increase in July, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 107.7 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in June and decreased 0.4 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the coincident economic index was unchanged, with two of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on September 10, 2015.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, October 14 at 10:00 A.M. (KST); Tuesday, October 13 at 9:00 P.M (ET).
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Indicator Program: email@example.com
1 212 339 0232
1 212 339 0257
All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.
You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.
"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.
Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.