Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, December 9, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

Note for Change in Annual BCI Benchmark Revision Timing

Annual BCI Benchmark Revisions

Release of the annual benchmark revisions for Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) composite economic indexes will be moved from January 2026 to June 2026. Releases in subsequent years will also be in June. This modification ensures that the sample period fully incorporates the most recent completed calendar year of the underlying components (source data) of composite indexes (leading and coincident). This data is used for calculating standardization factors and subsequently trend adjustments.

Due to the change in revision release timing from January to June, the cutoff for incorporating source data revisions into the benchmark process will shift accordingly:

-          For the next benchmark revision in June 2026, the cutoff used for calculating standardization factors and trend adjustment will be December 2025, rather than December 2024.

-          This change in timing allows the volatility calculations and factor updates to reflect a more complete dataset prior to the annual recalculation of the historical composite indexes.

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, January 20, 2026, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The Germany LEI ticked up in October 

New orders for investment goods and stock prices recovered in the month, but consumer confidence slipped

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for Germany are:

• New Orders for Investment Goods
• Yield Spread, 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate
• Consumer Confidence Index
• Inventory Change
• New Residential Construction Orders
• Stock Price Index
• Gross Enterprises and Properties Income

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Germany are:

• Industrial Production
• Employed Persons
• Retail Trade
• Manufacturing Sales

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org