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Released: Friday, June 20, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in April.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased slightly in April. The index was revised upward between December 2013 and February 2014, after fourth quarter data for inventory change and gross enterprises and properties surplus became available. In the six-month period ending in April, the leading economic index increased 2.4 percent (about a 4.9 percent annual rate), up from 1.7 percent (about a 3.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become very widespread with all indicators advancing over the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in April. Between October 2013 and April 2014, the coincident economic index increased 0.9 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate), up from its increase of 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the components have remained very widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew 3.3 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2014, up from 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2013.
- The LEI for Germany has been on an upward trend since the end of 2012, and as a result its six-month growth rate continues improving. Meanwhile, despite month-to-month volatility, the CEI has been advancing over the past year and its six-month growth has moderately improved. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity is likely to continue to expand in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in April. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, new orders in investment goods industries, consumer confidence, stock prices, inventory change*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. The only negative contributor was new residential construction orders*.
With the 0.2 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 110.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in March and increased 0.5 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 2.4 percent, with all seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in April. The positive contributors were employed persons, manufacturing sales, and industrial production. Only retail trade declined in April.
With no change in April, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 108.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in March and increased 0.2 percent in February. During the six-month period through April, the index increased 0.9 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
* See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET June 18, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
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