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Released: Monday, November 23, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 1.0 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in September.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany declined again in September, with large negative contributions from stock prices, new orders from investment goods industries and consumer confidence as the primary drivers of the decline. From March through September 2015, the leading economic index decreased 1.8 percent (about a −3.6 percent annual rate), a sharp reversal from its growth of 2.9 percent (about a 5.9 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become slightly more widespread than the strengths over the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, decreased slightly in September. In the six-month period ending September, the coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate), down from 1.0 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses over that period. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 1.3 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, down from 1.8 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The LEI has declined in five of the past six months and as a result, its six-month growth rate has fallen deeper into negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI declined in September and its six-month growth has moderated in recent months. The persistent declines in the LEI and the weaknesses among its components suggest that the economic activity will not pick up any momentum in the near-term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were the yield spread, inventory change contribution to GDP change *, and gross enterprises and properties income*. Negative contributors—in order from largest to smallest— were stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, consumer confidence, and new residential construction orders*.
With the 1.0 percent decrease in September, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 106.9 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.4 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index decreased −1.8 percent, with three of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Only one of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in September: the employed persons component. Industrial production and manufacturing sales declined in September, while retail trade was unchanged.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in September, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 105.8 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET November 20, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
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