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Released: Friday, September 11, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in July.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany declined again in July, with consumer confidence and new residential construction orders making large negative contributions. The index was revised downward between February and June, after second quarter data for inventory change contribution and gross enterprises and properties income became available. From January to July 2015, the leading economic index was unchanged, after growing 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, the strengths among the leading indicators have become slightly more widespread than the weaknesses over the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in July. In the six months ending in July, the coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate), down slightly from 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become very widespread with all components advancing during the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew 1.8 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of this year, up from 1.4 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
- In July, the LEI registered its fourth consecutive monthly decline, and as a result its six-month growth rate was unchanged compared to the second half of last year. Meanwhile, the CEI edged up in July, and its six-month growth rate has moderated. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the expansion in the economy may continue in the near-term, but the pace of growth is unlikely to accelerate considerably.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in July. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were the yield spread, inventory change contribution to GDP change *, new orders in investment goods industries, stock prices, and gross enterprises and properties income*. Negative contributors were consumer confidence and new residential construction orders*.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in July, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 108.0 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in June and declined 0.3 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index remained unchanged, with four of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in July. The positive contributors were retail trade, industrial production, and employed persons. Manufacturing sales was unchanged in July.
With the 0.2 percent increase in July, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 105.7 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in June and remained unchanged in May. During the six-month period through July, the index increased 0.4 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
* See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET September 8 , 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
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