Latest Press Release
Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.
Released: Tuesday, September 15, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. declined 0.3 percent, and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in July.
- The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. continued to decrease through July, with order book volume and consumer confidence making the largest negative contributors. The index was revised downward between March and June 2015, after second quarter data for total gross operating surplus of corporations became available. In the six-month period ending July 2015, the LEI decreased 0.3 percent (about a −0.5 percent annual rate), after its decline of 0.7 percent (about a −1.4 percent annual rate) over the second half of 2014. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses over the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, edged up in July. The coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate) in the first half of this year, down from 1.1 percent (about a 2.1 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident indicators, however, have remained very widespread, with all components advancing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 2.6 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, up from a 1.5 percent (annual rate) gain in the first quarter.
- The LEI for the U.K. has declined for three consecutive months, and as a result its six-month growth rate has become negative. Meanwhile, the CEI has been stagnant this year, and as a result its six-month growth rate has moderated considerably. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is likely to continue to grow in the short-term, but the pace is unlikely to pick up.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in July. The positive contributors were the yield spread and productivity for the whole economy*. The negative contributors—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—were order book volume, consumer confidence, stock prices, and volume of expected output. Total gross operating surplus of corporations* remained unchanged in July.
With the 0.3 percent decrease in July, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 111.5 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in June and declined 0.5 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the leading economic index decreased 0.3 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in July. The positive contributors were employment* and real household disposable income*. Industrial production declined and retail sales remained unchanged in July.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in July, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 105.7 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in June and increased 0.2 percent in May. During the six-month period through July, the coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent, with all of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY: The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K. reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on September 11, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.
* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. that are based on our estimates are productivity for the whole economy and total gross operating surplus of corporations. Series in The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. that are based on our estimates are employment and real household disposable income.
The next release is scheduled for Monday, October 12 at 2:30 PM CET (9:30 AM ET)
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Indicator Program: email@example.com
1 212 339 0232
1 212 339 0257
All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.
You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.
"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.
Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.