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Released: Monday, July 20, 2015

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India was unchanged in June at 101.9 (2010 = 100), following a 1.3 percent decline in May and a 1.4 percent increase in April. Industrial production: capital goods, cargo handled, the real effective exchange rate (36 countries), merchandise exports, and the interest rate spread contributed positively to the index in June. However, the PMI: services business activity index and the SENSEX stock prices index contributed negatively, offsetting the positive gains.

“The flatness in the Leading Economic Index in June and the volatility of recent months suggest India’s short-term economic growth environment will remain challenging,” said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “The service sector and equity market indicators continue contracting despite low energy prices and stimulative policies. In addition, the pickup in consumer prices and depreciation in currency, if sustained, will limit room for India’s central bank to take on further monetary easing measures.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.0 percent in June to 109.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.9 percent decline in May and a 3.5 percent increase in April. Two of the three components contributed positively to the index in June.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
www.conference-board.org/data

About The Conference Board

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www.conference-board.org.

The next release is scheduled for Friday, August 21 at 10:00 AM (Mumbai); at 12:30 AM (ET).

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program: indicators@conference-board.org

Media Contacts:

Andrew Tank:
+ (32) 2 679 50 52
andrew.tank@conference-board.org

Claire Xia:
+ 86 10 8532 4688
claire.xia@conference-board.org

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