Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Friday, March 20, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 0.1 percent in February to 103.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in January and a 1.2 percent decline in December. Four of the eight components contributed positively to the index in February.
“The Leading Economic Index for India improved slightly in the first two months of the year, but its six-month growth rate remains modest against the backdrop of slow global growth,” said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “While the slight improvement in the LEI is a positive signal, and monetary policy should help provide some stimulus, it is too early to conclude that the rate of India’s economic expansion will pick up in the coming months.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in February at 106.9 (2010 = 100), following a 1.7 percent decline in January and a 0.4 percent decline in December. Two of the three components contributed positively to the index in February.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
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About The Conference Board
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