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Released: Thursday, February 20, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 0.7 percent in January. The index stands at 178.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December and a 0.8 percent decline in November. Six of the eight components contributed positively to the index in January.
“The Leading Economic Index for India rose sharply in January, driven by a majority of its components. The six-month change in the LEI is still negative, but the rate of decline has eased somewhat in the last two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The persistent weakness of the Coincident Economic Index, measuring current economic activity, shows India is not out of the woods yet, but the broad-based improvement in the LEI suggests that the economy could see some upsides in the coming months.”
Said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board: “While the slowing in the growth of global liquidity is affecting many emerging economies, the bottoming out of the Leading Economic Index in India points at somewhat greater resilience against those headwinds. GDP growth may therefore slightly improve over the coming months.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, fell by 0.9 percent in January to 198.2 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in December and a 0.6 percent decline in November. Three of the four components contributed negatively to the index in January.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.
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