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Released: Friday, August 21, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 1.5 percent in July to 103.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in June and a 1.3 percent decline in May. All eight LEI components advanced in July.
“July’s large increase in the Leading Economic Index for India, after two monthly decreases, adds some degree of optimism to the economic outlook,” said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “However, despite July’s rebound in several leading indicators, the LEI has been moving sideways, suggesting that India’s economic growth is unlikely to gain momentum this year.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.7 percent in July to 111.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in June and a 1.0 percent decline in May. All three components contributed positively to the index in July.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
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About The Conference Board
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