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Released: Monday, November 23, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 1.2 percent in October to 103.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in September and a 0.3 percent decline in August. All LEI components made positive contributors to the index in October.
“The Leading Economic Index for India increased in October on the back of widespread strengths among its components,” said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “Despite the gain, the six-month growth in the LEI has been moving sideways since mid-2015, providing little evidence that India’s pace of economic expansion will gain much momentum in the coming months.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.5 percent in October to 110.6 (2010 = 100), following a 1.8 percent decline in September and a 0.4 percent increase in August. Car sales: passenger vehicle and industrial production* increased in October.
* October figure is based on The Conference Board estimates
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at:
The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, December 23 at 10:00 AM (Mumbai); Tuesday, December 22 at 11:30 PM (ET).
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