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Released: Tuesday, August 18, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), fell 0.8 percent in July. The index now stands at 88.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in June and a 0.1 percent decline in May. The services sector survey: expectations index, the exports volume index, the consumers survey: expectations index, and stock prices all contributed negatively to the index in July.
Download a PDF of the press release in Portuguese.
“The downward trend in the Leading Economic Index for Brazil that started in early 2013 continued through July, suggesting Brazil’s economy is unlikely to turn around in the near future,” said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. “Moreover, the persistent and widespread weaknesses among the Coincident Economic Index components confirm that Brazil remains in a recession.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent to 103.2 (2010 = 100) in July, following a 0.1 percent decline in June and a 0.3 percent decline in May. All six components contributed positively to the index in July.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, India, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:
Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo/ São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE – Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatística/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX – Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyze, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by by administrators and analysts
The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, September 16 at 11:00 AM Rio de Janeiro time; (10:00 AM ET).
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