Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Monday, February 24, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.2 percent in January. The index stands at 283.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in December and a 1.3 percent increase in November. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in January.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
ldquo;Unexpectedly strong growth in bank lending, coupled with improvements in the export sector, helped to support an acceleration of the LEI in January. Consumer expectations was the only negative contributor to the index,” says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “Despite the monthly pick up, the LEI’s six-month growth rate has remained essentially unchanged since the second half of last year. This sideways movement points to a continuation of the current pace of economic expansion for the first half of 2014, even though it is in part underpinned by an unsustainable credit expansion which creates risk and uncertainty.”
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
About The Conference Board
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