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Released: Thursday, November 19, 2015

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.6 percent in October to 341.7 (2004 = 100), following a 1.6 percent increase in September and a 0.9 percent increase in August. Total loans issued by financial institutions made the largest positive contribution to the index, followed by the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index*, the (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index, and the consumer expectations index*. Total floor space started and the PMI new export orders index declined in October.


The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 2.0 percent in October to 282.0 (2004 = 100), following a 1.5 percent decline in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August. Retail sales of consumer goods, volume of passenger traffic*, manufacturing employment*, and value-added industrial production increased. Electricity production declined in October.

* These series are based on The Conference Board estimate


Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.

Download a PDF of the  press release in Chinese.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.


About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.


The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

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About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at:

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, December 22 at 10:00 AM; Monday, December 21 at 9:00 P.M. US time.

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program:

Media Contacts:

Carol Courter:
1 212 339 0232

Jonathan Liu:
1 212 339 0257

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Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

Straight Talk November 2015

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2016: Escaping the Global Economy's Holding Pattern

US economy running faster than trend now and through at least first half 2016

The long-term trend rate of growth for the US economy is about 2 percent. The economy is growing faster than that that right now, perhaps 2.5 percent annualized and this faster pace could well continue through the first half of 2016.

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