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Released: Monday, June 23, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.7 percent in May. The index stands at 290.2 (2004 = 100), following 1.0 percent increases in both April and March. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in May.

Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs in Chinese.

Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.

“While the Leading Economic Index for China increased in May, its rate of increase has slowed considerably in recent months. The LEI, and its underlying components, suggest continued weaknesses in China’s real economy in the coming months,” says Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board. “April’s sharp improvement in the real estate sector was short-lived and consumers remain in a pessimistic mood. Moreover, the Coincident Economic Index indicates the rate of current economic activity is substantially lower than last year.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.7 percent in May to 259.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in April and a 1.5 percent increase in March. All five components contributed positively to the index in May.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
www.conference-board.org/data

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at
www.conference-board.org.

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program: indicators@conference-board.org

Media Contacts:

Carol Courter:
1 212 339 0232
carol.courter@conference-board.org

Jonathan Liu:
1 212 339 0257
Jonathan.liu@conference-board.org

©The Conference Board 2013. All data contained in this table are protected by United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed are provided for informational purposes only and may only be accessed, reviewed, and/or used in with the permission accordance of The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or license agreement and the Terms of Use displayed on our website at www.conference-board.org. The data and analysis contained herein may not be used, redistributed, published, or posted by any means without express written permission from The Conference Board.

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Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

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