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Global Business Cycle Indicators

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Released: Thursday, November 19, 2020

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in October

Recovery to continue in Q4, but downside risk persists

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in October to 108.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in September and a 1.6 percent increase in August.

“The US LEI rose again in October, with widespread improvements despite weakness from housing permits and consumers’ outlook on economic conditions. However, the leading index has been decelerating in recent months, which suggests growth will moderate significantly in the final months of 2020, slowing down from the unusually rapid pace in Q3,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Furthermore, downside risks to growth from a second wave of COVID-19 and high unemployment persist. While The Conference Board projects the US economy will expand in Q4, the pace of growth is unlikely to exceed 2.2 percent (annual rate).”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in October to 102.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in September and a 0.9 percent increase in August.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in October to 107.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decrease in September and a 0.2 percent decrease in August.


About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components. 

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions


For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1


For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

 

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

 

The next release is scheduled for Friday, December 18 at 10 A.M. ET.

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program: indicators@conference-board.org

Media Contacts:

Joseph DiBlasi:
1 781 308 7935
joseph.diblasi@conference-board.org

All data contained herein are protected by United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed are provided for informational purposes only and may only be accessed, reviewed, and/or used in with the permission accordance of The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or license agreement and/or The Conference Board’s Terms of Use. Except as expressly permitted by The Conference Board or applicable law, the data and analysis contained herein may not be used, redistributed, republished, or reposted by any means.

Download related PDFs

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Press Release
With graph and summary table

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