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Released: Thursday, September 22, 2016
But Trend Still Points to Moderate Economic Growth Ahead
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in August to 124.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in July, and a 0.2 percent increase in June.
“While the U.S. LEI declined in August, its trend still points to moderate economic growth in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators are roughly balanced, positive contributions from the financial indicators were more than offset by weakening of nonfinancial indicators, such as leading indicators of labor markets, suggesting some risks to growth persist.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in August to 114.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.3 percent increase in June.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in August to 122.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in July, and a 0.2 percent decline in June.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, October 20 at 10 A.M. ET.
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