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Released: Friday, January 22, 2016
Moderate Economic Growth to Continue in Near Term
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at:
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in December to 123.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in both November and October.
“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in December, led by a drop in housing permits and weak new orders in manufacturing,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “However, the index continues to suggest moderate growth in the near-term despite the economy losing some momentum at the end of 2015. While the LEI’s growth rate has been on the decline, it’s too early to interpret this as a substantial rise in the risk of recession.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in December to 113.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November, and a 0.2 percent increase in October.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in December to 119.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in November, and a 0.2 percent increase in October.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For full press release and technical notes:
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, February 18 at 10 A.M. ET.
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+1 (212) 339-0232
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