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Released: Thursday, October 20, 2016
Economy to Continue Expanding at Moderate Pace through Early 2017
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in September to 124.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in August, and a 0.5 percent increase in July.
“The U.S. LEI increased in September, reversing its August decline, which together with the pickup in the six-month growth rate suggests that the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace through early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, and the interest rate spread were the main components lifting the index in September. Overall, the strengths among the leading indicators are outweighing modest weaknesses in stock prices and the average workweek.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in September to 114.2 (2010 = 100), following no change in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in September to 122.3 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in August, and no change in July.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™ Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
The next release is scheduled for Friday, November 18 at 10 A.M. ET.
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