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Released: Wednesday, October 16, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in August.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to increase in August, with the order books survey making the largest positive contribution. Between February and August, the leading index increased 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate), down from its 2.6 percent increase (about a 5.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly in August. The coincident economic index decreased 1.1 percent (about a -2.1 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending in August 2013, an improvement from its decline of 3.1 percent (about a -6.1 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP declined by 0.4 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, after falling by 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
  • The LEI for Spain has been advancing for most of the past 12 months, but its six-month growth rate has slowed in recent months. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain has been on a downward trend for more than two years, and its six-month growth rate, while still negative, has been improving. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the economy will likely continue to ease through the end of this year.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in August.  The positive contributors — starting from the larger positive contributor — are the order books survey and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish equity price index, job vacancies, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in August, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.6 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June.  During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.9 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in August. The positive contributors — in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller — are the retail sales survey and final household consumption*.  Employment*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports* declined in August.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in August, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 93.1 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in July and decreased 0.3 percent in June.  During the six-month span through August, the index decreased 1.1 percent, and three of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 70.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) October 11, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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