Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, April 17, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) declined 0.3 percent in February.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain decreased slightly in February, its first decline in six months. Order books survey made the largest negative contribution. Nevertheless, the six-month growth rate of the leading index remained positive at 2.8 percent (about a 5.8 percent annual rate) between August 2012 and February 2013, a reversal from its contraction of 3.2 percent (about a -6.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators remain slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, continued to decline in February. The coincident economic index declined by 3.3 percent (about a -6.5 percent annual rate) between August 2012 and February 2013, steeper than its contraction of 1.4 percent (about a -2.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all five components declining during the past six months. Meanwhile, GDP declined by 3.2 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2012, and has now been contracting since the middle of 2011.
- Though the LEI for Spain fell in February, its six-month growth rate remains in positive territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain has been on a downward trend for almost two years, and its six-month growth rate contracted deeper as a result. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the economy is likely to continue, even though it may ease in the coming months.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in February. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. The negative contributors — starting from the largest negative contributor — are order books survey, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and the Spanish equity price index.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in February, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 104.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in January and increased 0.9 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.8 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
The next release is scheduled for Friday, May 17, 2013 at 10:00 A.M. (Madrid Time)
In the U.S. – Friday, May 17, 2013 at 4:00 A.M. (ET)
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain, only real imports* increased in February. Employment*, final household consumption*, retail sales survey, and industrial production excluding construction declined in February.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 93.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in January and decreased 0.6 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 3.3 percent, and all components declined (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) April 12, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.