Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, January 17, 2013
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.3 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased for the third consecutive month, as the order books survey and Spanish contribution to Euro M2 made the largest positive contributions in November. As a result of recent gains, the six-month growth rate of the leading index picked up by 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate) between May and November 2012, a large improvement from its contraction of 2.3 percent (about a -4.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly in November. Between May and November 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.4 percent (about a -2.9 percent annual rate), slightly better than the contraction of 1.8 percent (about a -3.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have stayed very widespread with all five components declining during the past six months. Meanwhile, GDP contracted at a 1.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, its fifth consecutive quarter of contraction.
- The recent gains in the LEI for Spain have lifted its six-month growth rate into positive territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain has been on a downward trend since the middle of 2011. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the pace of contraction in the Spanish economy may ease in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the capital equipment component of industrial production, job placings, and the inverted long-term government bond yield.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in November, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 103.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.0 percent in October and increased 0.3 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.5 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. None of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in November. Industrial production excluding construction, employment*, and final household consumption* declined, while real imports and the retail sales survey were unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 95.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and decreased 0.9 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 1.4 percent, and all five components declined (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) January 15, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment and real imports.
Effective with the January 2013 release, the industrial production excluding consumption component in the CEI for Spain has been changed from the trend adjusted version of the series to the seasonally adjusted version after Eurostat discontinued production of the former series.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.