Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, October 16, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in August.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain decreased again in August, as declines in the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and order books survey more than offset gains from stock prices and the (inverted) long-term government bond yield. In the six-month period ending August 2012, the leading economic index declined by 3.3 percent (about a -6.5 percent annual rate), much sharper than the decrease of 0.8 percent (about a -1.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in August, the first gain in more than a year. Between February and August 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.2 percent (about a -2.4 percent annual rate), slightly slower than the contraction of 1.9 percent (about a -3.8 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained widespread. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2012, its fourth consecutive quarter of contraction.
- The LEI for Spain has been on a downtrend since February 2011, though its rate of decline has slowed over the past three months. In addition, the six-month growth rate of the CEI for Spain remains in negative territory, despite this month’s increase. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the Spanish economy will continue, and could even worsen in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in August. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish equity price index, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and job placings. The negative contributors are order books survey and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in August, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 101.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.5 percent in July and increased 0.3 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index decreased 3.3 percent, and one of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in August. The positive contributors — starting from the larger positive contributor — are the retail sales survey and real imports*. Final household consumption*, employment*, and industrial production excluding construction declined in August.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in August, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 97.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in July and decreased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index decreased 1.2 percent, and one of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) October 11, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.
* Series in The Conference Board CEI for Spain that are based on our estimates include final household consumption, employment, and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.