Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, August 14, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in June.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased slightly in June, after three consecutive declines, as large positive contributions from rising equity prices and job placings more than offset the negative contribution from the long-term government bond yield (inverted). In the six-month period ending June 2012, the leading economic index declined by 2.3 percent (about a -4.5 percent annual rate), almost the same rate as during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been very widespread, with all components declining in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, decreased again in June. Between December 2011 and June 2012, the coincident economic index declined by 1.4 percent (about a -2.8 percent annual rate), slightly slower than the 1.9 percent decline (about a -3.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators are still more widespread than the strengths. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2012, its third consecutive quarter of contraction.
- The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased for the first time since January, though its six-month rate remains solidly in negative territory, and all of its components became weaker during the first half of 2012. In addition, The Conference Board CEI has been on a downward trend for more than a year. Despite the small improvement in the LEI this month, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the Spanish economy will continue and could even worsen in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in June. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish equity price index, job placings, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and order books survey.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in June, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 102.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.6 percent in May and declined 1.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index decreased 2.3 percent, and none of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in June. Final household consumption was the only positive contributor in June, while employment*, industrial production excluding construction and the retail sales survey declined. Real imports remained unchanged in June.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 97.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in May and decreased 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index decreased 1.4 percent, and one of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) August 9, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.