Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, November 14, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in September.
- The leading index increased slightly in September. Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the order books survey were the largest positive contributors, while the capital equipment component of industrial production was the sole negative contributor. Despite mostly small gains in recent months, the six-month growth rate has slowed considerably, declining from 2.8 percent (about a 5.7 percent annual rate) for the period from September 2006 through March 2007, to 0.4 percent (about a 0.9 percent annual rate) for the period from March 2007 through September 2007. The strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in September, however the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the strengths over the past six months.
- The coincident index continued to grow at a consistent pace in September, as it has throughout 2007. Employment and final household consumption remained the largest positive contributors to the index this month while the retail sales survey was the only negative contributor. The strengths among the coincident indicators have been consistently widespread during the past six months.
- After growing rapidly throughout 2005 and 2006, the leading index has increased very slowly during the past two quarters. During the first half of 2007, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent (including a 3.8 percent annual rate for the second quarter). This is within the range of the 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent average annual rate of growth that has prevailed since the end of 2004. Based upon the behavior of the leading and coincident indexes, it seems likely that the Spanish economy will continue to grow at a moderate pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, order books survey, the inverted long-term government bond yield, job placings and the Spanish equity price index. The only negative contributor is the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in September, the leading index now stands at 157.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in August and increased 0.4 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 0.4 percent, and one of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four of the five components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are employment*, final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined in September.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 159.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.4 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) November 12, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.