Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, August 22, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain declined 0.3 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in June.
- The leading index declined in June, following a large gain in May which offset the decline in April. Spanish contribution to Euro M2 was the only positive contributor to the leading index in June. As a result, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed to 1.3 percent from December to June (a 2.5 percent annual rate), significantly down from the 7.0 percent annualized growth rate through the end of 2006. In the six months from December to June, the number of leading index components rising has been slightly greater than the number of components falling, suggesting strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been roughly balanced.
- The coincident index increased slightly again in June. The strength among the coincident indicators continued to be widespread, but the growth rate of the coincident index has also moderated since the beginning of 2007. At the same time, real GDP grew at about a 4.0 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2007 (including the second quarter's 3.2 percent annual rate), only slightly below the 4.1 percent average rate in the second half of 2006. Despite short-term volatility, the slower growth in both the leading and coincident indexes so far suggests that moderate economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Only one of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributor was the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the inverted long-term government bond yield, job placings, the Spanish equity price index, order books survey, and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 152.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in May and declined 0.6 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.3 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, real imports*, and retail sales survey. With the increase of 0.2 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 160.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in May and decreased 0.4 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.2 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) August 21, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.