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Benchmark Revisions - September 2007

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Released: Wednesday, February 14, 2007

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.7 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in December.

  • The leading index increased again in December, driven by large positive contributions from the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. With December's gain, the leading index grew 3.3 percent from June to December (a 6.7 percent annual rate), up from the 4.0 — 5.0 percent annual growth rate in the first half of 2006. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators became somewhat more widespread than weaknesses in recent months.
  • The coincident index also increased in December, and the largest positive contributor continued to be final household consumption*. This index of current economic activity has grown at about a 4.5 percent annual rate in recent months, slightly above its growth rate in 2005 and early 2006. At the same time, real GDP growth continued at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, slightly above the 3.6 percent average rate in the second half of 2005. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, and job placings. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are order books survey and the inverted long-term government bond yield.

With the increase of 0.7 percent in December, the leading index now stands at 150.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.3 percent in November and increased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 3.3 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, real imports*, and retail sales survey.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in December, the coincident index now stands at 158.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in November and increased 0.3 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 2.3 percent, and all of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) February 12, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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