Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, February 16, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.8 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in December.
- The leading index increased again in December, and the strength among the leading indicators was widespread in December. The growth rate of the leading index has gradually slowed to about a 2.0 – 3.0 percent annual rate in recent months, down from the 5.0 – 6.0 percent range in the second and third quarters of 2005. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators were balanced in the June-December period.
- The coincident index increased again in December, and it remains on a slightly rising trend. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005, and it has been fluctuating in the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range (average annual rate) in the last two years. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy is likely to continue growing at a moderate and steady rate in the near term.
Leading Indicators Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the order books survey, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. Job placings decreased in December.
With the increase of 0.8 percent in December, the leading index now stands at 142.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in November and remained unchanged in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 0.9 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators: All four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, the retail sales survey, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in December, the coincident index now stands at 152.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in November and increased 0.1 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.7 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) February 14, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include job placings.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.