Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, November 21, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that both the leading and coincident indexes for Spain increased 0.4 percent in September.
- The leading index increased in September, offsetting the small decline in August. With this month’s gain, the leading index has been growing at about a 3.0 to 4.0 percent annual rate in recent months, up from about a 1.0 to 1.5 percent rate in the second half of 2004. In addition, the strength in the leading index has been widespread in recent months.
- September’s increase in the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, keeps it on a steadily rising trend. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2005. Real GDP growth was slightly below the 3.6 percent average rate in the first half of the year, but still within the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range over the last two years. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that moderate economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
Leading IndicatorsFive of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and job placings. The order books survey declined in September.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in September, the leading index now stands at 140.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in August and increased 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 2.2 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincedent Indicators: All four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 150.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in August and declined 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.7 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) November 18, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include job placings.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.