Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, September 21, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that both leading and coincident indexes for Spain increased 0.2 percent in July.
- The leading index increased in July, the fourth consecutive gain. The growth rate of the leading index has picked up to about a 4.0 to 5.0 percent annual rate in recent months, up from about a 1.0 to 1.5 percent rate in the second half of 2004. June’s sharp increase was revised down because of the upward revision in the CPI deflator of the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, but the strength among the leading indicators continues to be widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index, which has been on a steady upward trend, increased again in July. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.6 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2005 (including a 3.7 percent in the second quarter), slightly above the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range it has been fluctuating in for the last two years. The continued strength in the leading index suggests that this strong economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators: Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in July. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, and job placings. The capital equipment component of industrial production, the order books survey, and the inverted long-term government bond yield declined in July.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in July, the leading index now stands at 140.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in June and increased 0.5 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 1.9 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincedent Indicators: Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction. The retail sales survey declined in July.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 149.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in June and was unchanged in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 1.4 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA: The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) September 20, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include job placings.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.