Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, July 19, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.4 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in May.
- The leading index increased again in May and the strength among the leading indicators has become more widespread. With this month’s gain, the leading index continues to increase at a 2.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate, an improvement from the second half of 2004, but still well below the 4.0 to 5.0 percent growth from early 2003 to early 2004.
- The coincident index increased again in May, keeping it on a steady upward trend. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2005, which is at the upper end of the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range it has been fluctuating in for the last two years. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy will continue to grow in the near term, perhaps at or slightly below the rate reached in the first quarter of 2005.
Leading Indicators: Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish equity price index, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the inverted long-term government bond yield, job placings, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The order books survey declined in May.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in May, the leading index now stands at 139.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in April and declined 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.8 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincedent Indicators: Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction. The retail sales survey declined in May.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in May, the coincident index now stands at 149.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in April and increased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.6 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA: The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) July 18, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.